3-26-09

As mentioned in my last post, the DOW is locked between trend 3 and 4

3-26: my upper resistance(trend 4): 79.3374 actual: 79.31 miss: 0.02
3-25: my lower support(trend 3): 75.5157 actual: 75.50 miss: 0.01

Trend 4 is a strong resistance from Nov 08, as Trend 3 is a weak support.
if it does break the resistance(Trend 4), a tiny resistance is around 80.60; then you will see the market riding on the 100-day moving average and fly up high.

if it doesn't, then fire up your FAZ and get ready to SHORT.

3-20-09

$INDU

Trend 2 is the major trend since 2009 and Trend 3 is the bottom formed in November last year which turn into resistance on Friday(3-20-09).

Tomorrow if it is going to continue the trend, it will find resistance around 7933.74 and get support at 7551.57 on its way downward.

筆記： 3-18-09 至 3-20-09

[筆記：可靠性大約六七成，用在數日短線投資]
[長線投資必須配合 trendline, 15min chart, 30min chart, weekly chart的分析]

A: 如果收盤價高過5MA(5-day moving average)，短期會升
B： 如果收盤價低過5MA，短期跌
C: CCI (15)必須向下沖破-100往更低走（沒有沖破時，不算）, 再回升突破-100時，是買入訊號
D: CCI(15) 突破 +100 進入 OVERBOUGHT 區域， 在其回落時 SELL
E: Stochastic(14,3) 線往下沖破20，再回升突破20時，是買入訊號
F: MACD : MASignal(9) FastEMA(12) SlowEMA(26)
MACD線必須沖破MASignal(9)，在其之上為 BUY 訊號





筆記：FAZ @ 3-18-2009 (上圖）
B. FAZ 於 3-10 跌破5MA (5-day moving average)， 表示未來數日將持續跌勢
C. 3-11 CCI 開始向下沖破 -100， 3-17 CCI 從低位-122回升至-100， 是買入訊號，不過3-18日回落至-115水位，表示跌勢持續
E. 3-11 Full STO %K（快線）在 %D線之下， 印證跌勢開始
F. MACD 線在 Signal 線下， 跌

筆記：FAZ @ 3-20-2009（下圖）
B. 3-19日回升， 不過仍未能沖破5MA的防線， 所以按兵不動繼續觀察
A. 3-20日微微沖破5MA，保守者應該多觀察一日， 是牛是熊星期一就有更明確的答案
C. CCI 在-100的臨界點，好事將近之兆
E. Full STO %k線微翹上， 如果星期一能沖出20，牛市到左





筆記：DOW JONES @ 3-20-2009（下圖）
B. 3-20 Dow Jones 跌破5MA， 跌
D. CCI 從 +100 向下滑落， 跌
E. FULL STO %K 跌破 %D 線， 跌

3-20 是跌勢的最早訊號， 保守者應該留意多一兩天